The 2024 Elections to the Austrian National Council: Huge Shifts, but also a New Era?

Anna Gamper

University of Innsbruck

On 29 September 2024, elections to the National Council took place in Austria (detailed results can be found here). The National Council is the first chamber of the Austrian Federal Parliament, whose 183 seats are elected by the federal citizens according to the principles of equal, direct, personal, secret and free suffrage, according to a proportional election system every 5 years (Art 26 of the Austrian Federal Constitutional Act, hence B-VG). This key electoral event follows elections to the European Parliament and elections in several capitals that have already taken place in Austria this year. The significant gains of the Freedom Party, along with the severe losses of both the governing Conservative Party and the Greens, foreshadow the regional parliamentary elections in the coming weeks and months.

Election Results

The elections to the National Council resulted in massive gains for the right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ), which – for the first time ever at the federal level – won the relative majority of votes (28.8% of the vote – 12.7% more than at the last election, giving them 57 seats). The conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Greens (GRÜNE), which had formed the Federal Government during the last five years, both suffered enormous losses (the ÖVP won 51 seats with 26.3% of votes, 11.2% less than at the last election; while the GRÜNE won 16 seats with 8.2% of the vote, 5.7% less than at the last election). While the Social Democrats (SPÖ) remained at a modest level (steady at 21.1% of the vote, giving them 41 seats), the liberal NEOS made slight gains (increasing their vote share by 1% to 9.1% of the vote, giving them 18 seats). None of the other smaller parties crossed the threshold of obtaining at least 4% of the overall votes or securing one basic mandate in a regional electoral district. Although the electoral campaign was less heated than predicted, the strong protests against the FPÖ – led by their political opponents and several civil organisations – were unable to prevent the party’s victory. According to opinion polls, this is mainly due to discontent with the present Government’s handling of the pandemic, high inflation, and mass migration. Formed by parties with rather opposing political programs, the Government had failed to resolve many important issues.

Implications for the Formation of the Federal Government

Even though the FPÖ is the big winner, it is uncertain whether it will be able to form a government: as its mandates in the National Council are far from an absolute majority, they depend on a coalition with either the ÖVP or the SPÖ. The FPÖ’s preferred partner would be the ÖVP, whose electoral programme largely overlaps with its own. However, the ÖVP has ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ’s leader, though not necessarily with the FPÖ itself. Moreover, none of the remaining parties have expressed willingness to enter into a coalition with the FPÖ. If these positions remain unchanged, the two other options – apart from a minority Government, which is uncommon in Austria – are either a coalition between the ÖVP and the SPÖ, based on an extremely narrow majority of 92 mandates, or a coalition between them and – most probably – the NEOS as a third partner. However, the strongly diverging political programmes of these three parties are hardly compatible, in particular as regards economic and fiscal issues or migration policy. Still, from the present point of view, it might be the most likely option.

The Austrian case shows that, due to the proportional electoral system, a relative majority does not necessarily entail a position in the Federal Government. However, the FPÖ’s large number of mandates in the National Council will now enable it to request, for example, an investigative parliamentary committee (Art 53 B-VG) on its own. On the other hand, it did not reach the one-third of the National Council’s seats required to demand a referendum on “partial” federal constitutional amendments (Art 44 para 3 B-VG) or to challenge a federal law before the Constitutional Court (Art 140 para 1 subpara 2 B-VG).

The Role of the Federal President

From a constitutional perspective, the Federal President has the power to appoint the Federal Chancellor and, upon the Federal Chancellor’s proposal, the other members of the Federal Government (Art 70 para 1 B-VG). Formally, the Federal President is not bound by any proposal when appointing the Federal Chancellor. However, it has been a political custom to appoint a Federal Government that commands a majority in the National Council, since a minority government would run a significant risk of being overruled in legislative procedures and dismissed following votes of no confidence (Art 74 para 1 B-VG). Immediately after the election, the Federal President made a statement according to which he would talk with all party leaders and wait for negotiations between the political parties in order to find out possible options for a majority coalition. He also emphasized that he would seek to ensure the new Federal Government’s respect for the pillars of liberal democracy, the rule of law, the separation of powers, human and minority rights, independent courts and media, as well as EU membership. After some initial informal talks between the party leaders, who continue to refuse a coalition with the FPÖ, the Federal President entrusted the ÖVP’s leader, who is the current Federal Chancellor, with the informal “mandate to form a government”. This move was criticized by the FPÖ for violating the tradition of mandating the largest party. Such a mandate, however, is neither explicitly mentioned in the B-VG nor is it legally necessary for negotiations between the parties.

Thus, a long period of political negotiations, possibly lasting several months, may be expected. According to the usual tradition, the Federal President has meanwhile accepted the formal resignation of the former Federal Government and reappointed it as the “Interim Government” (Art 71 B-VG). This means that the former Federal Government will remain in this interim capacity until a new Federal Government is appointed.

Recent Changes to Postal Voting

It is also worth mentioning that postal voting was used to its highest extent so far: 1,436,240 voting cards had been issued, while 6,346,059 Austrian citizens were entitled to vote. The possibility of postal voting was introduced by a Federal Constitutional Amendment in 2007 (BGBl I 2007/27) and upheld by the Constitutional Court (see, eg, VfSlg 19.893/2014, 20.072/2016) despite tensions with the principles of free, secret and personal suffrage. However, a recent amendment of the ordinary National Council Election Act (BGBl I 2023/7) brought about several changes to facilitate and safeguard the integrity of postal voting. Accordingly, postal votes now have to be counted on the evening of election day together with the in-person votes, so that an almost exact “provisional” electoral result can be announced immediately afterwards. Only the remaining postal votes that could not be submitted earlier and still need to be conveyed to the responsible electoral authorities are counted in the days following election day. After this process, the “final” electoral result can be officially announced. Moreover, other recent changes include the introduction of an electronic voter registry and improvements to accessibility.

Regional Elections Still Ahead

Quite apart from the possible outcome of the political negotiations at the federal level, the forthcoming regional elections are likely to show similar results: after the election to the regional parliament of Vorarlberg, which has already taken place on 13 October 2024, the Styrian parliament will be elected on 24 November 2024, with other regional elections to follow in 2025. Moreover, these elections will impact on the composition of the Federal Council, i.e., the Federal Parliament’s second chamber, since the newly elected regional parliaments will elect their delegates to the Federal Council. This could shift the majority in that chamber.

This blog is part of the blog symposium Federal Coalitions and Subnational Democracy and hosted by the IACL Research Group on Constitutionalism and Societal Pluralism: Diversity Governance Compared.

Anna Gamper is a Professor of Public Law at the University of Innsbruck, Austria, and Substitute Judge at the Constitutional Court of the Principality of Liechtenstein.

Suggested citation: Anna Gamper, ‘The 2024 Elections to the Austrian National Council: Huge Shifts, but also a New Era?’ IACL-AIDC Blog (5 November 2024) The 2024 Elections to the Austrian National Council: Huge Shifts, but also a New Era? — IACL-IADC Blog